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首页研究报告储能工程行业报告欧洲储能协会欧洲2030及2050储能目标研究报告英文版36页
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欧洲储能协会欧洲2030及2050储能目标研究报告英文版36页

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欧洲储能协会欧洲2030及2050储能目标研究报告英文版36页
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Energy StorageTargets 2030 and 2050EASEEnsuring Europe's Energy Security in aRenewable Energy SystemEuropean Associationfor Storage of EnergyExecutive SummaryAs Europe accelerates its ambitions to achieve climate neutrality by 2050,the energy system is set to look very differentfrom the one we see today.Driven by ambitious climate targets,the electricity sector especially is taking great stridesin reducing greenhouse gas emissions by replacing fossil fuel generators with renewables.However,the inherentvariability of wind and solar generation brings with it new challenges.The electricity system needs to become muchmore flexible than it is today to accommodate the rising share of renewables and new flows of electricity that comewith it.Variable production of wind and solar means renewable deployment alone will not eliminate fossil fueldependence,as backup gas generators are used to cover renewables energy shortfalls at times of low production.Ifthe EU is to meet its climate targets in time and integrate even higher shares of renewables as stated in theREPowerEU plan,reliance on fossil fuel imports and backup gas generation must be replaced with alternative lowemission solutions.Energy shifting and flexibility services provided by energy storage are indispensable for system reliability and securingsupply of energy to cope with moments of low renewables and also maximise renewable utilisation at times of highproduction.While flexibility services can also be provided by other technologies,energy storage is the only solutionable to provide the essential energy shifting service which is one of the key solutions to minimising curtailment ofrenewable energy.This will ensure a self-sufficient European energy economy by maximising utilisation of localrenewables,reducing reliance on external fossil fuel imports,in turn alleviating the high electricity prices seen today.REPowerEU clearly acknowledges this and the important role of energy storage to reduce the use of gas power plantsin the energy system []It is therefore critical that the role of greenhouse gas (GHG)emitting flexibility from fossil fuelgenerators is reconsidered especially by 2030"However,storage uptake today is seriously lagging behind wind and solar deployment.The EU risks being unable tointegrate the rapidly growing renewables and in turn being locked into fossil fuel backup,if storage deployment doesnot go in parallel with renewable uptake.With this paper we assess the energy storage requirements as a whole forEurope and propose estimates of energy storage targets for 2030 and 2050 based on a review of existing scientificliterature,official documents from the European Commission(EC)and input from relevant stakeholders.We find thatmany studies do not address all key energy storage technologies and durations,often undervaluing low emissiontechnologies and energy shifting resources and overvaluing the use of GHG emitting baseload plants especially in the2030 time horizon [2].Many studies are based on outdated climate targets which leads to an underestimation offlexibility needs in the energy system.Furthermore,the rapidly changing storage technology and innovation landscapemeans new cost projections need to be included in energy system planning today to accurately reflect technologiesavailable 3][4]We estimate energy storage power capacity requirements at EU level will be approximately 200 GW by 2030(focusing on energy shifting technologies,and including existing storage capacity of approximately 60 GW inEurope,mainly PHS)By2050,it is estimated at least 600 GW ofenergy storage will be needed in the energysystemThis is based on the needs in terms of bi-directional contribution from Power-to-X-to-Power solutions (i.e.for energyshifting),estimated at around 435 GW as a no regret option for 2050,being complemented by 165 GW of power-to-Xtechnologies providing one-directional system flexibility.This will require a massive ramp-up in storage deployment ofat least 14 GW/year in the next 9 years,compared to 0.8 GW/year of battery storage deployed in 2020 according to theInternational Energy Agency(IEA).This is an ambitious goal but it is in line with existing non-binding national targets inSpain for example,which is targeting 20 GW by 2030 and further highlights the urgent need to start deployment now.The required storage capacity (hours of rated power during discharging)will largely depend on the fraction of annualenergy from variable renewables in the generation mix,which means some member states will already require largeamounts of storage even before 2030 (see Figure 4).There is an urgent need for EU-level energy storage targets andstrategy that are compatible with the energy storage needs related to current EU climate policy.Establishing thesevalues as energy storage targets at EU-level backed by the promise of meaningful future policy and regulation,provides the clearest signal to the energy storage industry to begin building the infrastructure needed to drive truescale,reducing costs and enabling the success of the EU's climate goals.*Low-carbon non-variable generation such as nuclear,bioenergies or CCUS can also make very meaningful contributions to the GHG reductionstarget;their different projected growth trajectories however are not part of the scope of this current paperTable of ContentsExecutive Summary…41.1.Energy Storage Definition..1.2.Accelerated Renewables Uptake in Europe-What Does This Mean for Energy51.3.Setting EU Energy Storage Targets in Line with Best Practice..........444444444444442.Overview of Energy Storage Requirements in Europe by 2030 and 2050.....................2.1.Energy storage:2030-time Horizon............................92.2.Energy storage:2050-time Horizon.103.Why Energy Storage Needs Are Underestimated Today ............................113.1.Climate and Sector Targets Do Not Align with Energy Storage Uptake ...............113.2.High Electricity Prices Today:Urgent Need to Reduce Reliance on NaturalS.113.3.Minimising curtailment with Energy shifting ........................................123.4.Cost Projections and Technology Readiness Data Does Not Reflect Reality......133.5.Sector Integration and Seasonal storage considerations ..........................143.6.Accounting for Extreme Weather Events and Adequate Temporal Resolution .153.7.Maximising Existing Grid Infrastructure with Energy Storage .........................154.Energy Storage Estimates Based on current Data and Assumptions .............................164.1.Flexibility Needs for 2030 ........................................164.1.1.Reducing the EU's Reliance on Natural Gas by 2030 .........................................184.2.2030 EU Energy Storage Target Estimation.1943.Flexibility needs for 2050..214.4.2050 EU Energy storage Target Estimation....22246.Annex:Sup porting Information ...................................256.1.Relationship between Variable Renewables Share and Energy StorageRequirements in旋GW.…256.2.Calculation of Natural Gas Reduction Needed in Power Sector by 2030 toAlign with 55%GHG Reduction Target..................................256.3.2030 Summary of Inputs and References for Energy Storage Targets Estimate.266.4.2050 Summary of Inputs and References for Energy storage Target Estimate..277.List of Acronyms…288.Refepences.........29
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